Tropical cyclone early warnings for the regions of the Southern Hemisphere: strengthening resilience to tropical cyclones in small island developing states and least developed countries

Tropical cyclones (TCs) affect countries in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics every year causing significant humanitarian impacts and much damage to the natural environment. To reduce TC impacts on societies, early warning systems (EWS) are used to communicate the risk to the public. In 1999, the Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones International Initiative (CCSHTCII) was established to enhance EWS for TCs in SH countries, with particular focus on support for small island developing states and least developed countries to provide effective public early warnings of TC risk. In this paper, recent activities of the CCSHTCII to strengthen TC EWS are presented. Using TC best track data from the SH TC historical data archive, the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual and spatial variability of TC activity is examined. TC-ENSO relationships in the SH are analysed and used as a scientific basis for the production of TC season outlooks. Communication of TC early warnings through TC season outlooks is described, and recommendations for improving outlooks are provided.

     

Approximate traveltime inversion in downhole microseismic monitoring

In downhole microseismic monitoring, accurate event location relies on the accuracy of the velocity model. The model can be estimated along with event locations. Anisotropic models are important to get accurate event locations. Taking anisotropy into account makes it possible to use additional data – two S-wave arrivals generated due to shear-wave splitting. However, anisotropic ray tracing requires iterative procedures for computing group velocities, which may become unstable around caustics. As a result, anisotropic kinematic inversion may become time consuming. In this paper, we explore the idea of using simplified ray tracing to locate events and estimate medium parameters. In the simplified ray-tracing algorithm, the group velocity is assumed to be equal to phase velocity in both magnitude and direction. This assumption makes the ray-tracing algorithm five times faster compared to ray tracing based on exact equations. We present a set of tests showing that given perforation-shot data, one can use inversion based on simplified ray-tracing even for moderate-to-strong anisotropic models. When there are no perforation shots, event-location errors may become too large for moderately anisotropic media.     

Geothermal Model of the Fore-Yenisey Sedimentary Basin―Transitional Structure between the Ancient Siberian Platform and the Young West Siberian Plate

Results of the investigation into the geothermal regime of the Fore-Yenisey sedimentary basin, formed during the collision and subsidence of the Kas-Turukhan microcontinent and the western margin of the Siberian craton in the late Neoproterozoic and early Paleozoic are reported. It was established that the structural and geothermal conditions of the upper Precambrian–Paleozoic sections are similar to those in the western regions of the Siberian platform and are characterized by rather low geothermal gradients (12.5–25.5 °С/km). In the western parts of the basin, formation temperatures in the uppermost pre-Jurassic sediments are 50°С–85°С, decreasing eastward to 30°С–55°С. For the first time, the detailed geothermal model of the basin sedimentary fill was developed. This model allows predictions of the geothermal conditions of Earth’s interior.     

Reflected waves in finely layered tilted orthorhombic media

Upscaling in seismics is a homogenization of finely layered media in the zero-frequency limit. An upscaling technique for arbitrary anisotropic layers has been developed by Schoenberg and Muir. Applying this technique to a stack of layers of orthorhombic (ORT) symmetry whose vertical symmetry planes are aligned, results in an effective homogeneous layer with orthorhombic symmetry. If the symmetry planes in a horizontal orthorhombic layer are rotated with respect to vertical, the medium is referred to as tilted orthorhombic (TOR) medium, and the stack composed of TOR layers in zero-frequency limit will produce an effective medium of a lower symmetry than orthorhombic. We consider a P-wave that propagates through a stack of thin TOR layers, then it is reflected (preserving the mode) at some interface below the stack, and then propagates back through the same stack. We propose to use a special modified medium for the upscaling in case of this sequential down- and up-propagation: each TOR layer in the stack is replaced by two identical TOR layers whose tilt angles have the opposite algebraic sign. In this modified medium, one-way propagation of a seismic wave (any wave mode) is equivalent to propagation of a pure-mode reflection in the original medium. We apply this idea to study the contribution from an individual layer from the stack and show how the approach can be applied to a stack of TOR layers. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, we use well log data for the upscaling. The model we propose for the upscaling can be used in well-seismic ties to correct the effective parameters obtained from well log data for the presence of tilt, if latter is confirmed by additional measurements (for example, borehole imaging).     

X-ray single-crystal and Raman study of knorringite,Mg3(Cr1.58Mg0.21Si0.21)Si3O12, synthesized at 16 GPa and 1,600 °C

The crystal structure of a knorringite-type compound, Mg₃(Cr_1.58Mg_0.21Si_0.21)Si₃O₁₂, synthesized in a multi-anvil press at P = 16 GPa and T = 1,600 °C, was refined from single-crystal X-ray diffraction data up to R = 2.36 % for 314 independent reflections. Garnet was found to be cubic and have space group Ia $\overline{3}$ d, with the unit cell parameters a = 11.5718 (1) Å, V = 1,549.54 (2) Å³. The knorringite crystal studied contains 21 mol% of majorite end-member. The structural characterization of knorringitic garnet is important because the study of its thermodynamic constants provides new constraints on thermobarometry of peridotitic garnet assemblages of the lowermost upper mantle. The Raman spectra of synthetic knorringite have been obtained for the first time.     

Polarization and brightness opposition effects for the E-type Asteroid 64 Angelina

We present new polarimetric and photometric observations of the high-albedo Asteroid 64 Angelina in the UBVRI wavebands at phase angles ranging from 0.43° to 13.02° during oppositions in 1995, 1999, and 2000/2001. The polarization opposition effect has been observed in the form of a sharp peak of negative polarization with amplitude of about −0.4% centered at αmin≈1.8°, which is superimposed on the regular negative polarization branch. The amplitude of the polarization opposition effect appears to be apparition-dependent. Our photometric data confirm the early detected by Harris et al. [1989. Phase relations of high-albedo asteroids: The unusual opposition brightening of 44 Nysa and 64 Angelina. Icarus 81, 365-374] of a very strong and unusually narrow opposition spike, i.e., brightness opposition effect, for Angelina. Thus, 64 Angelina is the first asteroid for which both the polarization opposition effect and the brightness opposition effect have been detected. We observed that the polarization opposition effect as well as the regular negative polarization branch depends on the wavelength of scattered light, but in different manners. In addition, the colors B-V and V-R show little phase-angle dependence, while the color U-B increases with increasing phase angle, thus indicating that the amplitude of the brightness opposition effect is larger in the U band and almost the same in the B, V, and R bands. It appears that all colors indices begin to increase with decreasing phase angle to zero. The composite lightcurve computed with a period of 8.752 h has amplitude of 0.13 magnitude.     

A focal plane detector design for a wide-band Laue-lens telescope

The energy range above 60 keV is important for the study of many open problems in high energy astrophysics such as the role of Inverse Compton with respect to synchrotron or thermal processes in GRBs, non thermal mechanisms in SNR, the study of the high energy cut-offs in AGN spectra, and the detection of nuclear and annihilation lines. Recently the development of high energy Laue lenses with broad energy bandpasses from 60 to 600keV have been proposed for a Hard X ray focusing Telescope (HAXTEL) in order to study the X-ray continuum of celestial sources. The required focal plane detector should have high detection efficiency over the entire operative range, a spatial resolution of about 1mm, an energy resolution of a few keV at 500keV and a sensitivity to linear polarization. We describe a possible configuration of the focal plane detector based on several CdTe/CZT pixelated layers stacked together to achieve the required detection efficiency at high energy. Each layer can operate both as a separate position sensitive detector and polarimeter or work with other layers to increase the overall photopeak efficiency. Each layer has a hexagonal shape in order to minimize the detector surface required to cover the lens field of view. The pixels would have the same geometry so as to provide the best coupling with the lens point spread function and to increase the symmetry for polarimetric studies.     

The Glueckstadt Graben of the North-German Basin: new insights into the structure from 3D and 2D gravity analyses

The structure of the Glueckstadt Graben has been investigated by use of 3D gravity backstripping technique and by 2D gravity and magnetic modelling. Subtracting the gravity effects of the Meso-Cenozoic sediments together with Permian salt reveals a positive residual anomaly within the Glueckstadt Graben. This anomaly includes two local maxima over the Westholstein and Eastholstein Troughs. The 2D gravity models point to the presence of a high-density body within the lower crust of the Glueckstadt Graben. In addition, the results of 2D magnetic modelling indicate that the central part of the high-density body is overlain by an area with high susceptibility. Most probable, the formation of this high-density body is a result of complex poly-phase tectonic history of the study area. Finally, the results of gravity modelling indicate that Permian salt is not homogeneous. 3D gravity analysis and, especially, 2D gravity modelling have distinguished the differences in degree of salt saturation in salt-rich bodies, and elucidate the proportion of Rotliegend salt.     

Erosion processes in karst landscapes of the Russian plain northern taiga,based on digital elevation modeling

This paper considers the problems of the potential development of erosion processes in the natural landscapes of northern taiga in the Russian plain. It is considered that in forest ecosystems, erosion processes are slow and are weakly reflected in the terrain. However, the situation changes radically if the vegetation cover integrity is violated, which is inevitable with the modern methods of developing northern territories. Furthermore, global changes in average annual temperatures and the occurrence of karst processes may be the reason behind the development of erosion processes. The authors suggest a method for determining territories with a varying occurrence probability of erosional processes, based on digital elevation modelling. The territory of the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve (Arkhangelsk region) was chosen as the test plot. Direct field studies were previously used to detect exogenous geological processes in this territory. The authors were the first to suggest digital elevation modelling as a method that allows determining the potential danger of erosion in karst landscapes of the northern taiga. The geomorphometric studies resulted in the determination of areas with the greatest and lowest occurrence probability of erosion processes in the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve. It was established that the most significant erosion type was linear erosion, represented by incised river valleys and karst ravines. Sheet erosion is less significant and occurs as sinkholes, local declines, and chasms over the valleys of subterranean rivers.     

Nonlinear excitation of small-scale Alfvén waves by fast waves and plasma heating in the solar atmosphere

We study a nonlinear mechanism for the excitation of kinetic Alfvén waves (KAWs) by fast magneto-acoustic waves (FWs) in the solar atmosphere. Our focus is on the excitation of KAWs that have very small wavelengths in the direction perpendicular to the background magnetic field. Because of their small perpendicular length scales, these waves are very efficient in the energy exchange with plasmas and other waves. We show that the nonlinear coupling of the energy of the finite-amplitude FWs to the small-scale KAWs can be much faster than other dissipation mechanisms for fast wave, such as electron viscous damping, Landau damping, and modulational instability. The nonlinear damping of the FWs due to decay FW = KAW + KAW places a limit on the amplitude of the magnetic field in the fast waves in the solar corona and solar-wind at the level B/B ₀∼10⁻². In turn, the nonlinearly excited small-scale KAWs undergo strong dissipation due to resistive or Landau damping and can provide coronal and solar-wind heating. The transient coronal heating observed by Yohkoh and SOHO may be produced by the kinetic Alfvén waves that are excited by parametric decay of fast waves propagating from the reconnection sites.